The Conservative party’s opposition policy document, titled “Right Way,” contains a significant factual error regarding the estimated cost of achieving net-zero emissions in the United Kingdom. The document claims that the Climate Change Committee estimated the cost at £957bn, but this figure appears to stem from a spreadsheet error that resulted in costs being counted twice.
The actual 2020 estimate from the Climate Change Committee was £478bn—precisely half the figure cited by the Conservatives. The CCC later revised this estimate downward to £108bn in a subsequent assessment, largely due to declining costs for electric vehicles. The spreadsheet error appears to have originated from combining capital expenditure and operational expenditure figures without accounting for an existing annual total line, effectively doubling the actual calculation.
The £957bn figure can be traced back to earlier in the year, when it first appeared in an article published in January 2026 by David Turver, described as a retired engineer and self-described “accidental energy analyst.” Turver repeated the erroneous number in a report released by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The mistaken figure subsequently circulated through other organizations, including the Great British Think Tank in March 2026, before being incorporated into the Conservative party’s policy document later in the year.
According to the CCC’s original 2020 analysis, the £478bn net cost represented less than 1% of gross domestic product over a 30-year period and was expected to generate broader economic benefits, including a projected 2% boost to GDP. The committee’s revised 2025 estimates placed the net cost at £108bn over 2025-50, representing less than 0.2% of GDP. The CCC has also indicated that achieving net-zero targets would cost less than a typical fossil-fuel price shock while delivering substantial annual benefits.
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