Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, positioning him ahead of incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who received 44.2%. The two candidates will advance to a runoff scheduled for 25 October. Bolsonaro’s strong performance has raised significant concerns among climate and environmental organizations regarding the future of the Amazon rainforest and Brazil’s broader ecosystems.
Lula’s current administration has achieved a nearly 50% reduction in Amazon deforestation, yet this environmental accomplishment failed to generate substantial electoral support for pro-forest candidates in concurrent elections. Marina Silva, the former environment minister, lost a Senate bid, while Joenia Wapichana, a former director of Brazil’s Indigenous affairs agency, failed to secure a congressional seat. Of 57 Indigenous candidates, only two won election. These results suggest that environmental protection did not substantially influence voter behavior in this electoral cycle.
Flávio Bolsonaro represents continuity with his father’s political legacy. During Jair Bolsonaro’s four-year presidency, Amazon deforestation increased by 59.5%, equivalent to destroying approximately 2 billion trees. If elected, Flávio has pledged to free his father, who is imprisoned for involvement in a military coup plot. As a lawmaker, Flávio previously supported legislation eliminating requirements for landowners to preserve native vegetation in the Amazon. His campaign manifesto omitted climate change entirely, and he has cultivated support from major landowners in the rainforest region. Following the election, Bolsonarist candidates now control seven of nine Amazonian states and may secure an eighth in upcoming runoffs. Several family members also won legislative seats.
Analysts attribute reduced environmental voting support to multiple factors, including the effectiveness of social media campaigns by right-wing groups and the expansion of evangelical Pentecostalism in Brazil. Lula’s messaging has appeared less resonant with voters than in previous electoral campaigns. Additionally, geopolitical tensions between major powers and broader rightward political shifts across Latin America have created momentum for candidates favoring extractive industries over environmental protection. The election outcome carries implications extending beyond Brazil’s borders, affecting global climate stability and the fate of critical ecosystems.
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