Rystad Energy released the fifth edition of its Global Energy Scenarios report, which examines how global reliance on imported energy is expected to evolve through mid-century. The analysis identifies 2034 as the peak year for energy import dependency, driven by accelerating electrification as countries prioritize energy security. The report analyzes this evolution across three distinct scenarios reflecting different rates of change in global energy policy and technology deployment.
Recent geopolitical conflicts have severely tested the global energy system. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US-Israeli conflict with Iran have disrupted energy flows and prompted significant shifts in supply sources. European gas imports from Russia declined from approximately 36% in 2021 to 7.5% by 2025, while US liquefied natural gas exports to Europe grew to around 21%. Similar diversification occurred in oil markets through increased storage, demand response, and pipeline development. However, these disruptions have created new pressures, including competition between Europe and Asia for limited liquefied natural gas supplies and elevated diesel prices resulting from reduced Middle East refinery capacity and Russian export restrictions.
Governmental responses have varied in scope and focus. Since February 2026, approximately 100 countries implemented consumer protections through fuel tax cuts, subsidies, or price caps. A smaller subset pursued structural changes, with 26 nations adopting electrification policies, predominantly in Europe and Asia. Energy security considerations have increased political support for electrification in countries previously less committed to such transitions. Most electrification efforts rely on domestic energy sources including renewables, nuclear power, and coal where reserves exist.
The report introduces a new reference scenario called Pragmatism, which assumes gradual policy strengthening with affordability, energy security, and technology costs as determining factors. Under this pathway, global import dependency among importing nations would decline from approximately 40% currently to 26% by 2050. Electricity is expected to play an increasingly central role in the energy system, expanding from about 28% of useful energy today to 41% by 2050. Data centers and artificial intelligence applications are creating new demand pressures, particularly for firm power sources including gas-fired generation and nuclear capacity.
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