An International Institute for Strategic Studies report has concluded that Gulf states face a critical need to restructure their defence posture in light of recent conflicts with Iran and their economic consequences. The analysis indicates that regional nations, particularly those in the Persian Gulf, encountered approximately 4,670 Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles and over 1,400 ballistic missiles in the weeks preceding the 8 April ceasefire, with nearly half directed at the United Arab Emirates. Despite successful interception of the majority of these weapons, estimated damage to energy infrastructure reached as high as $58 billion.
The report identifies substantial deficiencies in regional military readiness despite considerable investments in weapons systems. Key vulnerabilities cited include excessive dependence on American air and missile defence systems, inadequate integration of regional defence capabilities, limited minesweeping resources, insufficient retaliatory capacity, and inefficient spending patterns driven by reliance on expensive high-end systems to counter relatively inexpensive drone and missile threats.
A significant finding concerns the apparent disconnect between Gulf states’ massive defence expenditures and their actual security outcomes. The report notes that trillion-dollar weapons acquisitions have not translated into adequate American protection during critical moments, and that regional militaries remain unprepared for the type of prolonged aerial warfare they now face. The analysis suggests that US military installations and defence partnerships have potentially provided Iran with justification for attacks against Gulf partners.
The report further examines shifting perceptions regarding American strategic value in the region. Public opinion has reportedly moved from viewing the US as a security provider to increasingly seeing it as a strategic liability. Any reduction or withdrawal of American forces would likely be framed by Iran as evidence of successful resistance and used to criticize Gulf states for their historical reliance on American security guarantees.
These findings align with recent statements from US Senator Chris Murphy, who indicated ongoing military discussions regarding the practicality of rebuilding damaged Gulf bases. Murphy questioned the strategic logic of reconstructing facilities that could be destroyed within hours of future conflict, suggesting any rebuilt American presence must be substantially smaller and strategically repositioned, potentially further into the eastern Mediterranean to reduce vulnerability to Iranian missile systems.
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