Central Asian countries dependent on Russian energy supplies have begun pursuing alternative sources as Ukraine’s sustained strikes on Russian refineries have degraded Moscow’s fuel production capacity. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which historically sourced the majority of their petroleum products from Russia, face growing uncertainty over fuel availability and have initiated deals with Iran to secure supplies.
Tajikistan traditionally imported approximately 80 percent of its petroleum products from Russia, while Kyrgyzstan sourced over 90 percent of its petrol from the same source. In August, Tajikistan’s Energy and Water Resources Ministry announced it would receive oil and petroleum products from Iran, with expectations to obtain 2.55 million tonnes over a specified period. During the same month, Iranian officials and Kyrgyzstan agreed to establish a joint refinery operation, with Iran committing to supply crude oil for the facility. Other regional nations have also adjusted their energy strategies, with Uzbekistan pursuing diversification through partnerships with Georgia and Iraq despite its domestic production capabilities.
Russia’s fuel crisis stems from Ukrainian drone operations targeting refineries, which have disabled an estimated quarter to half of the nation’s total oil refining capacity. In response, Moscow implemented fuel rationing limiting purchases to roughly 20-30 liters per vehicle, suspended petrol and jet fuel exports, and loosened fuel-quality standards for domestic consumption. Russian leadership has acknowledged the challenges while characterizing the situation as manageable.
Iran’s outreach to Central Asian markets occurs as Tehran faces significant constraints on its own oil exports. A US naval blockade of Iranian ports and international sanctions have substantially reduced Iranian crude loadings from approximately two million barrels daily in March to between 220,000 and 255,000 barrels daily by August. However, analysts noted that Iranian oil reaching Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan would require transit through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, presenting logistical complications for sustained trade arrangements.
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