Philadelphia’s July Fourth weekend heat dome illustrates a growing connection between rising temperatures and gun violence. As a historic heat event affected millions across the eastern United States, the city experienced multiple shootings, prompting discussions about how environmental conditions influence violent crime rates.
A new analysis by Climate Central, shared with The Trace, quantifies the relationship between climate change and gun violence in 100 U.S. cities with the highest rates of such incidents. The research estimates that approximately 2,000 shootings occurring between 2021 and 2025 can be attributed to temperature increases caused by climate change. The July Fourth weekend event in Philadelphia was at least twice as likely to occur due to climate influences, according to the findings. The analysis represents the first numerical assessment of climate change’s specific impact on shooting incidents.
Researchers developed city-specific models examining historical relationships between temperature and gun violence, accounting for regional variations in how heat is experienced. Using 22 global climate models combined with actual temperature records, scientists calculated hypothetical cooler temperatures absent climate change. The difference in daily temperatures attributable to climate change ranged from approximately 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit in San Francisco and Miami to 3.8 degrees in Fresno, California. In Philadelphia, climate change contributed an estimated 2.7-degree increase, associated with roughly 149 additional shootings over the five-year period.
Experts caution that temperature represents only one factor among many influences on gun violence rates. While estimates contain uncertainties due to reliance on simulated temperatures and modeled shooting projections, researchers maintain the directional finding is clear: climate change is increasing shooting incidents. As global temperatures continue to rise, gun violence is expected to face additional upward pressure. The effects will likely concentrate in neighborhoods already experiencing high violence rates, potentially exacerbating existing disparities in gun-related harm across communities.
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