Hispanic voters in Texas played a significant role in delivering support to President Trump during the 2024 election, with the president securing approximately 55% of Hispanic votes in the state—a record for a Republican presidential candidate. His campaign centered on addressing border security concerns, as the region had experienced substantial migration flows during the Biden administration, with over two and a half million apprehensions recorded in a single year at the southern border.
Trump’s administration has substantially reduced border crossings, bringing them to their lowest levels in decades. However, recent polling data indicates that support among Hispanic voters has declined markedly since the election. Surveys conducted since late summer show a majority of Texas Hispanic voters now disapprove of the president, with significant numbers favoring Democrats over Republicans.
Much of the shift appears connected to the implementation of immigration enforcement policies. While many Hispanic voters supported securing the border and stopping illegal crossings, they have expressed concerns about the methods and scope of Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations. Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, the highest share of any state. Some voters and community leaders have characterized the enforcement actions as overly broad, affecting law-abiding workers and contributing to labor shortages in local industries.
Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman, exemplifies this voter sentiment. He voted for Trump three times but plans to support Democrats in the midterm elections later this month due to concerns about the extent of the crackdown. Community leaders and clergy have also vocalized opposition to the enforcement approach. According to voting experts, Hispanic voters are more likely than other demographic groups to identify as independents rather than party-affiliated voters, making them a crucial swing constituency in upcoming elections.
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