The U.S. National Weather Service issued two September coastal flood advisories for the San Francisco Bay Area this month, marking an unprecedented occurrence for the region. Coastal flooding, erosion, and beach damage have already impacted California’s coastline, signaling what experts warn will be a severe winter shaped by an intensifying El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean.
Forecasters predict a very strong to historic El Niño with more than 90% probability of being very strong and approximately 75% likelihood of being historic, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The climate pattern is expected to produce severe storms, destructive high tides, and landslides potentially occurring simultaneously across California. Additional sea level rise from El Niño could add approximately one foot to California’s coastline on top of the eight to twelve inches caused by long-term climate change. Some areas face particularly acute risk, including recent wildfire burn scars where vulnerability to debris flows is heightened; watersheds and hillsides typically require five years to recover sufficiently to withstand strong storms.
State and local governments have mobilized response preparations. California’s governor declared a state of emergency on 21 September. Coastal communities are implementing protective measures, including sandbag reinforcements and sand replenishment along threatened shorelines. Workers in San Diego are assisting small businesses with flood preparations. Los Angeles officials have optimized flood control systems, though these are designed only for standard 100-year flood events, which El Niño conditions may render more probable.
Additionally, emergency managers must prepare for competing hazards. High heat and fire risks are expected to persist into November, creating a dual threat environment. However, federal disaster response capacity has been diminished through staffing cuts and budget reductions at the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Noaa, reducing national readiness during a critical period of elevated extreme weather risk.
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