The Trump administration has highlighted strong economic performance as midterm congressional elections approach, with the president characterizing the US economy as outperforming global counterparts. Overall US GDP is expanding at an annualized rate of 2.2%, with cumulative growth of approximately 3.2% since the end of 2024. This growth rate has exceeded forecasts from the International Monetary Fund made following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on imported goods on 2 April 2025, though the president subsequently reduced tariff rates in the months following their initial implementation.
Inflation remains a concern for American households despite declining significantly from pandemic-era peaks. The current inflation rate stands at 3.7%, representing improvement from the 9% peak reached in 2022 but higher than the 3% rate Trump inherited upon taking office. Economic analysts attribute some of this inflationary pressure to both the tariffs implemented during Trump’s second term and the effects of the US-Israel conflict with Iran on global energy markets. Diesel prices reached a record high of $6.52 per gallon in September, while prices for certain grocery items including beef and coffee have risen since Trump returned to office.
While median household incomes reached a record $87,460 in 2025 after adjusting for inflation, analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy indicates that middle-income households face an average loss of approximately $1,700 in 2026 compared to projected scenarios. Lower-income households experienced average losses near $750, while the wealthiest 1% benefited by an average of $12,560, primarily through tax cuts. The economy has added an average of 34,000 jobs monthly during Trump’s second term, substantially lower than the 122,000 monthly additions during the final year of Biden’s presidency, though the unemployment rate remains relatively stable at 4.2%.
US government borrowing has increased notably, with the federal deficit reaching $2 trillion in the year through September 2026, equivalent to approximately 6% of GDP and projected to exceed 8% by 2030. The economy has benefited from substantial private investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, with monthly data center construction spending reaching $5 billion in August 2026, nearly double the rate when Trump took office.
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