The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is convening in Addis Ababa this week amid competing pressures over the timing of its seventh comprehensive assessment report on global climate science. The report, designated AR7, was originally slated for release in 2028 to inform discussions at the UN climate summit Cop33 that same year. A coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside major developing economies including India and China, is advocating for postponement to 2029. These countries contend that additional time would enable developing nations to contribute more substantially to the scientific findings, arguing that climate research has been historically dominated by institutions in the EU, UK, and US.
In opposition, ministers representing 34 nations in the High Ambition Coalition—comprising some of the world’s poorest and most climate-vulnerable countries along with the EU and Least Developed Countries grouping—are calling for accelerated publication. Officials from the Marshall Islands and Sierra Leone emphasized that delaying the report would undermine scientific integrity and the effectiveness of international climate negotiations. They argue that the Paris agreement can only succeed if negotiations are guided by the most current scientific consensus.
The scientific context adds urgency to the dispute. Global temperatures have already surpassed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels, though some experts maintain restoration remains theoretically possible. Current national emissions commitments would result in warming exceeding 1.8 degrees Celsius. AR7 is expected to present even more alarming findings than its predecessor, released across 2021 and 2022, as greenhouse gas concentrations continue rising and climate impacts including record temperatures, heatwaves, and droughts intensify globally.
Critics of the delay argue it would weaken global climate action at a particularly vulnerable moment, with geopolitical obstacles already impeding emissions reduction efforts. They note that substantial developing nations possess the resources to build independent climate models rather than awaiting extended timelines. The IPCC maintains institutional independence from government interference, though its policy summaries require approval from participating governments. The dispute has also created divisions within environmental advocacy organizations, with some civil society groups expressing sympathy for increased developing nation participation in the assessment process.
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