Multiple polling organizations have released surveys indicating right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro holds a slight advantage over leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the upcoming run-off election scheduled for October 25. The CNT/MDA poll released Friday showed Bolsonaro receiving 46.8 percent support compared to Lula’s 45.9 percent. Two additional polls conducted separately by Quaest and Datafolha produced comparable results, with Bolsonaro ranging from 46 to 47 percent and Lula between 44 and 45 percent.
All three polls fall within a 2 percent margin of error, leading political analysts to characterize the race as highly competitive. The polling represents a significant shift in momentum, as Lula held stronger projections approximately one month earlier when he was expected to win decisively. The change follows the first round of voting on October 4, when Bolsonaro secured the largest number of votes with 56,104,503 compared to Lula’s 53,879,538.
Flavio Bolsonaro, 42, has adopted a political approach similar to his father, the former president Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro currently faces a 27-year sentence related to attempts to overturn the 2022 election and remains barred from seeking office until 2030. Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign platform centers on crime reduction, combating drug trafficking, and reducing taxes allocated to government social programs.
Lula, at 80 years old, is pursuing a fourth non-consecutive term following a political career of nearly five decades. His campaign has intensified efforts to mobilize supporters through regular rallies. Congress recently approved an amendment granting workers two paid days off per week, a significant achievement for one of Lula’s central social reform initiatives coming just before the election.
The election carries substantial implications for Latin America’s largest economy as voters address concerns regarding public safety and living costs. The political climate also reflects broader regional trends, with Latin America experiencing a pronounced shift toward conservative leadership in recent electoral cycles.
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