Provisional data from maritime tracking firm Kpler indicates that crude oil exports from the Middle East surpassed pre-war baseline levels on four of seven days during the final week of September. Specifically, exports climbed to between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and from September 27 through 29. The pre-war benchmark was established at approximately 18 million barrels daily during the period from March 2025 through February 2026.
A senior commander with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps challenged the significance of these figures in televised remarks, asserting that current traffic through regional shipping corridors amounts to only three to four million barrels per day and characterized this volume as negligible relative to historical norms. The commander also made assertions regarding the absence of U.S. naval vessels from the area and claimed vulnerability of American military assets to potential Iranian operations.
Broader export data compiled by Kpler showed that shipments of crude oil, refined products, chemicals and other liquid cargo averaged 22.4 million barrels daily during the seven days ending September 30. By October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports had declined to 18.5 million barrels per day. Liquefied natural gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest monthly volume since February during September.
The region has experienced heightened maritime activity and reported incidents. Iran claimed responsibility for attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, stating these operations prompted repositioning of U.S. naval assets. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency documented at least one reported attack daily in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden beginning October 2. Iran’s parliamentary speaker indicated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz remained contingent upon U.S. acceptance of Tehran’s proposed seven-day plan for normalizing waterway access.
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