Mathias Cormann, now secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, is cautioning Australia’s major political parties against embracing populist economic measures in response to voter concerns about rising living costs. Speaking at an event hosted by the Centre for Independent Studies, Cormann will argue that housing delivery, real wage growth, and lower energy costs can only be achieved through sustained productivity improvements.
One Nation has gained significant ground since the 2025 federal election, with polling showing its primary vote at 25%, surpassing the Coalition’s 22%. The party’s rise has been largely driven by its anti-immigration stance, which appeals to voters frustrated by escalating housing costs, energy bills, and stagnating incomes. Cormann will contend that established political parties attempting to counter this surge by adopting similar populist positions will ultimately fail. He argues that voters will always prefer the original populist party to an imitative version, while potentially abandoning mainstream parties entirely toward the political centre.
The former finance minister will specifically criticize arbitrary migration caps, regardless of their sectoral impacts, while acknowledging that public concern about immigration levels is higher than at any point in the preceding two decades. However, Cormann maintains that the appropriate policy response involves addressing housing supply, infrastructure, and service provision rather than restricting migration. OECD research examining regional patterns across Australia indicates that areas receiving higher migrant populations have experienced faster employment growth among Australian-born workers, with no measurable wage effects. He will further note that without migration, Australia’s working-age population would shrink as its demographic profile ages, creating an unsustainable fiscal scenario.
Cormann will also address proposed tariff policies, which he contends would raise costs for farmers, miners, and builders while failing to reduce overall living costs. He maintains that productivity growth represents the only viable mechanism for achieving sustained improvements in affordability and living standards. No alternative pathway through tariffs, migration restrictions, or state-owned banks can deliver equivalent results, according to his position.
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