Moderna’s stock declined as much as 25% on Thursday following an unscheduled release of partial data regarding its personalized cancer vaccine developed jointly with Merck. The complete dataset emerged later that day and demonstrated favorable outcomes compared to analyst expectations, yet share prices for both companies continued to fall.
The vaccine, called intismeran autogene, was tested alongside Merck’s immunotherapy drug Keytruda in melanoma patients. Results indicated a 42% reduction in recurrence or death risk versus Keytruda treatment alone, and a 38% reduction in the risk of metastatic spread or death. At the two-year mark, 82% of patients receiving the combination therapy remained alive without melanoma recurrence, compared to 70% receiving Keytruda alone. A separate analysis conducted after six months of vaccination showed a 58% reduction in recurrence or death. The treatment also demonstrated a favorable side effect profile, with injection-site reactions being the primary adverse events reported.
Market analysts attributed the share price decline to inflated pre-release expectations rather than disappointing trial performance. Multiple research firms characterized the data as clinically meaningful and overall positive. Moderna shares have appreciated more than 530% year-to-date, while Merck’s stock fell approximately 1% and has gained nearly 41% during the year. The personalized vaccine approach requires approximately six weeks for manufacturing, though Merck’s leadership indicated confidence in accelerating this timeline.
The companies are pursuing regulatory approval, with Moderna expected to submit a filing for full drug authorization next year. Beyond melanoma, both firms are investigating the vaccine’s potential in other cancers including non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, and renal cell carcinoma. The phase 3 trial results were scheduled for presentation at the European Society for Medical Oncology conference later that week.
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