Moderna’s stock experienced a sharp decline on Thursday following the unauthorized release of preliminary information regarding its personalized cancer vaccine developed in partnership with Merck. The vaccine, called intismeran autogene, is designed to target specific mutations in individual patients’ tumors and is administered alongside Merck’s immunotherapy drug Keytruda.
When the complete trial data was released later that day, it demonstrated meaningful clinical benefits. The combination therapy reduced the risk of recurrence or death in certain melanoma patients by 42% compared with Keytruda alone, and lowered the risk of cancer spreading or death by 38%. At the two-year mark, approximately 82% of patients receiving both the vaccine and Keytruda remained alive without melanoma recurrence, compared with 70% of those receiving only the immunotherapy. A separate analysis showed an even larger 58% reduction in recurrence or death risk following the six-month vaccine regimen, though the companies noted it remains too early to determine if the treatment extends overall survival.
Despite these positive results, both Moderna and Merck shares declined. Moderna fell as much as 25%, while Merck dropped approximately 1%. Market analysts attributed the stock reaction to investors’ exceptionally elevated expectations entering the data release rather than concerns about the therapy’s effectiveness. Several analysts characterized the data as a strong and clinically meaningful result. Moderna shares had surged more than 530% year-to-date as of Thursday afternoon, while Merck’s stock had climbed nearly 41% during the same period.
The personalized vaccine approach trains the immune system to recognize and eliminate unique cancer markers specific to each patient’s tumor. Medical experts highlighted that the treatment also demonstrated favorable safety profiles with milder side effects compared to other cancer therapies. The companies are currently studying the vaccine in additional trials for other cancer types including non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, and renal cell carcinoma. Moderna CEO indicated the company is completing regulatory filings for full drug approval next year, with manufacturing timelines potentially improving to accommodate broader patient access in the future.
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