Following Pope Francis’ death in April 2025, Cardinal Robert Prevost received messages from friends and colleagues expressing condolences and, in some cases, speculating about his potential candidacy for the papacy. Among those reaching out were Father Ramiro Castillo Castro, a former student; Lutheran pastor John Snider, with whom Prevost had studied theology decades earlier; and high school friend John Barry, who explicitly suggested that Prevost possessed the qualities necessary to become pope.
Prevost was not initially considered a leading candidate, or “papabile,” for several significant reasons. Most notably, no American had ever been elected pope, and conventional wisdom held that one never would be. Concerns existed that the United States already wielded excessive influence over global affairs. The political climate in the United States further complicated matters, particularly with President Trump having returned to power and begun implementing his stated agenda. Shortly before cardinals arrived in Rome, Trump posted an AI-generated image depicting himself as pope on social media, which offended both the cardinals and Catholics worldwide.
Cardinal Blase Cupich of Chicago publicly stated in an interview that electing an American pope would be imprudent given the country’s political, economic, and military influence globally. After reading Cupich’s comments, Prevost told Father John Merkelis that he was sleeping well, confident that an American would not be elected. Sister Thérèse DelGenio, a mentor to both men, responded to this sentiment by suggesting that Prevost had overlooked the influence of the Holy Spirit in the selection process.
As cardinals gathered in Rome to mourn Pope Francis and begin the electoral process, Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York emerged as the most prominent American ecclesiastical figure. Dolan, who had participated in the 2013 conclave and maintained close ties to the Trump administration, minimized questions about his own electability with humor, comparing his chances to those of playing cleanup for the Yankees. Despite initial assessments and prevailing expectations, the conclave would ultimately elect Prevost as Pope Leo later that month.
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