Senior health leaders in England have expressed concern about emerging winter pressures on the National Health Service, citing what NHS medical director Professor Frankie Swords described as “ominous early signs” of strain. The alarm comes as official data shows the backlog of patients awaiting routine hospital treatment increased to an estimated 7.37 million treatments relating to 6.24 million individual patients by the end of August, marking the highest level since October 2025.
Despite these figures, NHS England delivered record volumes of planned procedures and appointments during the summer months, with 4.7 million treatments, procedures, and appointments completed across June, July, and August. Emergency services also experienced unprecedented demand, with both accident and emergency departments and ambulance services reporting record numbers of patients in September. However, analysis by the Health Foundation think tank indicates that progress on reducing wait times has stalled over the past year, with new referrals mounting faster than the rate at which patients are being treated.
The rising numbers raise questions about whether the government will meet its target of treating 92% of patients within 18 weeks by 2029. The NHS Alliance, representing hospital trusts, stated the target will not be achieved by the end of parliament. The 18-week standard has not been met for a decade. A&E departments saw a decline in performance metrics, with 74.4% of patients seen within four hours in September, down from 75.0% in August. Additionally, the number of patients experiencing “corridor care”—waiting more than 12 hours from admission decision to actual admission—reached 50,582 in September, up from 44,951 in August.
Health officials attributed pressures to overlapping summer and winter demand cycles, with increased flu and respiratory virus cases arriving at emergency departments. Government officials maintained that the 18-week target remains achievable through planned investments in NHS infrastructure and equipment, while also noting that disruptions from previous industrial action by junior doctors have been resolved following a settlement of that dispute.
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