Diesel fuel on UK forecourts has achieved a record average price of 199.18p per litre, surpassing the previous peak of 199.09p established in June 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The escalating Middle East conflict has become the primary driver of the elevated costs, with prices potentially approaching £2 per litre in coming weeks.
According to the RAC, the average cost to fill a family vehicle with diesel now stands at nearly £110, representing a £31 increase since the start of the Iran conflict—a 40% rise over the period. Petrol prices have similarly climbed, averaging 174.13p per litre and now costing approximately £96 for a full tank, an increase of 41p and 31% respectively since the conflict began. Industry observers warn that these pump costs will likely translate into increased expenses for consumers across multiple sectors dependent on diesel-powered transport.
The international oil market has experienced considerable volatility tied to geopolitical developments. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded near $72 per barrel before the US-Israeli military action in February, peaked at $126 in April, and has since climbed to $106.50. The situation has been further complicated by Russian refinery output falling to 20-year lows due to Ukrainian drone strikes, while US policy considerations—including potential export bans and diplomatic pressure regarding strikes on Russian facilities—continue to influence global supply dynamics.
Policy responses remain under discussion, with the government currently maintaining a 5p fuel duty reduction through year-end. Officials have proposed further measures such as expanded duty cuts or VAT reductions to provide relief to motorists. A recent Competition and Markets Authority report found no evidence of profiteering by fuel retailers, though it noted that price reductions at the wholesale level have not consistently translated to pump savings for consumers.
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