Ryanair has cautioned that sustained high oil prices could lead to material increases in short-haul air fares across Europe during summer next year, with some less financially resilient competitors potentially unable to maintain operations. The Irish budget carrier cited ongoing concerns about petroleum markets, with Brent crude touching $97.04 a barrel in recent trading, the highest level since late July, following geopolitical tensions affecting supply.
The airline reduced its annual passenger target to 214 million from 216 million to mitigate exposure to elevated winter fuel costs during the traditionally unprofitable off-season. With jet fuel currently trading at $140 per barrel, Ryanair expects passenger numbers from November through March to remain flat relative to the prior year period. The company projects the winter schedule reduction will lower seasonal losses by between €70 million and €100 million.
Despite near-term challenges, Ryanair remains positioned for profitability due to hedging arrangements covering 80 percent of its jet fuel requirements at $67 per barrel. However, full-year earnings are expected to decline compared to the previous year’s record profit levels. The airline anticipates summer passenger growth between April and October exceeding 5 percent, rising from 138 million to 145 million passengers, with fares showing modest downward pressure in recent months.
Competitor Wizz Air reported passenger growth of 25.9 percent during the latest month compared with the prior year, driven by expanded flight capacity additions. Industry dynamics reflect divergent financial positions among carriers, with those lacking comprehensive fuel price protections facing heightened vulnerability to market volatility.
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