Ryanair has cautioned that sustained high oil prices could trigger significant fare increases across European short-haul routes in summer 2027, with some carriers facing potential financial distress. The Irish budget airline reduced its passenger forecast for the year to 31 March to 214 million from 216 million, reflecting efforts to limit exposure during the traditionally unprofitable winter months when jet fuel remains unhedged. Current crude oil futures are trading at approximately $140 per barrel.
The carrier projects passenger volumes between November and March will remain relatively stable compared with the equivalent period the previous year. Ryanair emphasized that competitors with less comprehensive fuel hedging arrangements may struggle to sustain capacity during the upcoming winter season. The company attributes these concerns partly to geopolitical factors, with recent US-Iran tensions driving renewed focus on oil supply stability.
Despite the challenging fuel environment, Ryanair expects to reduce its winter losses by an estimated €70 million to €100 million through schedule adjustments. The airline has hedged approximately 80 percent of its jet fuel requirements at $67 per barrel, positioning it to achieve profitability for the year, though below the record after-tax profit achieved previously. Summer operations between April and October are anticipated to grow passenger numbers by more than 5 percent, reaching 145 million travelers.
Meanwhile, competitor Wizz Air reported passenger growth of 25.9 percent in August compared with the prior year, driven by expanded flight capacity. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, reached $97.04 per barrel on Wednesday—the highest level since late July—before retreating to just below $95.
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