Ryanair has cautioned that sustained high oil prices could trigger material increases in short-haul airfares across Europe, with some carriers potentially unable to maintain operations during challenging periods. The airline reduced its passenger forecast for the year ending March to 214 million from 216 million as a protective measure against volatile fuel costs, which currently stand at $140 per barrel for jet fuel.
The budget carrier expects winter passenger numbers from November through March to remain flat compared with the previous year’s equivalent period. Company officials stated that if elevated oil prices persist into summer 2027, competitors lacking adequate fuel hedges may struggle to sustain capacity or survive the unprofitable winter season. Ryanair has locked in 80% of its jet fuel costs at $67 per barrel, positioning itself to record a profitable year despite the broader market headwinds.
The airline anticipates its winter schedule reductions will lower seasonal losses by between €70 million and €100 million. Meanwhile, Ryanair projects summer passenger growth of more than 5%, increasing from 138 million to 145 million travelers between April and October. Current fare trends show modest declines for the August-September period relative to the previous year.
Global crude benchmarks have risen following geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude reaching $97.04 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest level since late July, before settling below $95. Competing carrier Wizz Air reported stronger performance, with passenger numbers climbing 25.9% in the most recent month year-over-year, supported by expanded flight capacity across its network.
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