A collaborative study by University of California researchers and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory has produced findings indicating that Thwaites glacier, Earth’s largest glacier, is experiencing accelerated ice loss due to warm seawater penetrating beneath its surface. The research, published in Nature Communications this week, suggests the glacier could contribute 1.2 inches (30mm) to global sea levels by 2100, double earlier estimates, even without further acceleration of climate warming.
Thwaites glacier spans approximately 192,000 square kilometers and is situated on the Walgreen Coast of Marie Byrd Land in remote western Antarctica. It forms part of the broader West Antarctic ice sheet, which is substantially larger and contains multiple glaciers that function together as a barrier holding back vast reserves of ice. Scientists have monitored the glacier closely since discovering its rapid melting in the 1980s, following its initial mapping in 1947. Currently, ice loss from Thwaites accounts for approximately four percent of global sea-level rise, with the glacier losing roughly 50 billion tonnes of ice annually since 2000.
The research employed advanced computer models to better understand melting processes occurring at the glacier’s grounding line—the transition zone where the glacier shifts from bedrock contact to floating ice shelves. Scientists developed the concept of a broader “grounding zone” where warm seawater engages in “tidal pumping,” allowing ocean water to reach deep beneath the ice and accelerate melting. This process is destabilizing the glacier’s anchoring point on the Mouginot Ridge, an underwater bedrock formation. Researchers calculated a 60 percent probability that Thwaites could become unpinned from the ridge by century’s end.
Ocean warming driving this accelerated melting stems from human-induced climate change, particularly fossil fuel combustion. Separate research published in July by the British Antarctic Survey concluded that Thwaites will continue losing ice for at least the next 150 years regardless of ocean cooling scenarios. Scientists acknowledge that additional studies are necessary to refine projections of future ice loss volumes and timing.
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