Great Britain is projected to experience elevated energy expenses during the winter months, placing it among the costliest markets in Europe for power and gas. Energy operators have confirmed adequate supplies to meet demand throughout the coldest season, though this security comes at a premium as the country competes for imports at higher market prices than neighboring regions.
The forecasts were released shortly after European gas benchmarks reached their highest level since December 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. National Gas, which operates the country’s gas infrastructure, finalized an agreement with a Belgian pipeline owner to prevent a planned capacity reduction, ensuring continued gas flow during winter. The arrangement, approved by energy regulator Ofgem, will add approximately 10p monthly to average gas bills. Without this intervention, there was concern about potential supply failures during extreme cold if critical network components malfunctioned.
Great Britain is expected to increase seaborne liquified natural gas imports by roughly 5% compared with the previous winter, occurring when market prices are triple those before Middle East supply disruptions. The country maintains some of Europe’s smallest gas reserves, having depended on North Sea production for decades. Domestic output is forecast to decline 6% compared with last winter, though the government’s recent approval of the Jackdaw gasfield is anticipated to provide modest supply increases upon startup next month. European gas storage levels stand at their lowest in 13 years due to reduced Qatari exports and elevated summer consumption for cooling during record heatwaves.
The country is also expected to become a net electricity importer at higher costs given constrained European power supplies. Summer heat reduced river levels across Europe, damaging French nuclear generation and Norwegian hydroelectric reserves, which remain below 10-year minimums. Great Britain spent a record £4 billion on power imports over the preceding year, with half sourced from France. Gas power plants are forecast to operate at 7% higher capacity during extreme supply scenarios when renewable generation declines, offsetting overall reductions in gas usage due to growing renewable energy capacity.
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