S&P Global Institute released a report Monday describing an emerging global food security crisis linked to ongoing geopolitical conflicts affecting critical trade routes. The organization identified a “multidirectional squeeze on world agriculture” resulting from disruptions to energy supplies and agricultural inputs. Two major military conflicts—Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and the U.S. and Israel’s military operations against Iran—are creating cascading effects through international commodity markets.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping channel, previously handled approximately half of the world’s fertilizer feedstock exports. Chemicals such as urea, ammonia, sulfur, hydrogen, natural gas, and nitrogen pass through this waterway and are essential components for nitrogen-based fertilizer production. When the Strait of Hormuz experienced near-complete closure to shipping traffic in February, fertilizer prices rapidly doubled. The waterway has since partially reopened, though it remains disputed territory with ongoing violence described as becoming the new normal in the region.
Staple crops including corn, wheat, and rice depend heavily on chemical fertilizers in contemporary industrial agricultural systems. A significant disruption to fertilizer supply chains threatens approximately half of global caloric production. According to United Nations officials, such disruptions could push tens of millions of additional people into food insecurity, with one UN representative stating in April that the Strait’s closure could result in 45 million more people experiencing hunger and starvation.
The International Monetary Fund projects a 10 percent increase in fertilizer prices by year’s end, contributing to a 5 percent increase in food costs in 2026 and an additional 2.4 percent in 2027, with variations across regions. Natural gas production in the Gulf region will require months or years to return to previous levels, even if geopolitical tensions stabilize. Low-income countries face particular vulnerability, as food expenditures typically represent approximately half of household spending in these economies.
Experts note that historically, food price shocks and staple price inflation have triggered conflict and civil unrest globally. The Arab Spring is frequently cited as an example of regional conflict linked to rising food costs. Analysts warn that combining food inflation, rising hunger rates, and existing geopolitical instability could increase risks for conflict and civil unrest in coming months.
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