The current El Niño event is exhibiting characteristics that scientists describe as unprecedented, with multiple temperature records being established across the equatorial Pacific region. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported that average weekly sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific have reached their highest levels on record. Earlier in September, daily sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific set a new record, surpassing the previous benchmark established during the strong El Niño of 2015. Temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius have been documented for the first time in portions of the tropical Pacific, alongside record sea-surface temperature anomalies and exceptional subsurface warmth readings.
The intensity of the current event is partly attributable to the overlapping effects of natural El Niño patterns and long-term ocean warming driven by climate change. To better isolate and compare the strength of the natural phenomenon across different time periods, forecasters have begun employing a Relative Ocean El Niño Index, which accounts for underlying warming trends. Using this adjusted measure, current conditions exceed those recorded during December 2015, which was itself considered a major event. Climate scientists note that the warmth associated with this El Niño extends well beyond the traditional monitoring regions, spreading across broader areas of the Pacific and into the Gulf of Mexico in patterns not observed during previous major events from 1972-73, 1982-83, and 1997-98.
Global impacts from the event are anticipated to intensify later this year and continue into 2027. The release of accumulated ocean heat into the atmosphere is expected to contribute to elevated global temperatures throughout 2026 and beyond. Regional effects vary considerably, but historical patterns suggest increased drought and wildfire risk in southeast Asia, potential flooding in parts of East Africa, and suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity paired with increased Pacific cyclone activity. The World Meteorological Organization has already documented drought and flood-related disruptions in multiple regions, with particular concerns regarding food security in East Africa and the Asia-Pacific area. Forecasting models from major meteorological centers project the event will reach its peak intensity in December.
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