With 11 days until the US midterm elections, early voting data indicates strong participation across the country. According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, more than 23 million Americans had cast ballots in person or by mail as of October 23. Major battleground states are reporting substantial early voting activity, with Texas recording more than 2.8 million early votes, Florida nearly 2.2 million, Georgia approaching 1.5 million, North Carolina exceeding 1.2 million, and both Michigan and Ohio surpassing 900,000 ballots cast.
Democrats currently hold a significant advantage in early voting returns. Registered Democrats account for 45% of early ballots cast compared with 30% from Republicans, based on tracking of returned ballots rather than candidate selection. This gap is particularly pronounced in states that traditionally favor Republicans, including North Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa. Political strategists have expressed concern about what some describe as a “red undertow,” with GOP voters potentially staying home due to dissatisfaction over issues including high gas prices, international conflicts, and tariff policies.
The early voting pace substantially exceeds 2022 midterm levels in multiple battleground states. In Georgia, early votes already represent more than 40% of the total 2022 midterm turnout, while Texas stands at 35%, North Carolina at 33%, and Florida at 27%. Michigan and Ohio are recording similarly elevated paces. Democrats cite voter frustration over economic conditions and affordability as factors energizing their base, while observers suggest the party out of power may be capitalizing on circumstances that typically advantage opposition parties during midterm elections.
Mail-in voting continues to account for substantial participation despite recent administration actions. More than 57 million mail-in ballots have been requested or sent nationally, exceeding the 52 million requested in 2022. The University of Florida’s Election Lab reports figures approaching 59 million ballots requested. This resilience in mail-in voting persists despite executive orders from the Trump administration seeking to restrict the practice, which the Supreme Court struck down in September.
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