Two parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel—Ra’am and the Joint List—are projected to secure 13 seats in the country’s upcoming election, positioning them as potential decisive forces in coalition negotiations. The two blocs vying for control, Netanyahu’s Likud-led alliance and the Zionist opposition, are running roughly even in polling and neither appears likely to achieve the 61-seat majority needed to govern the 120-seat Knesset independently.
Both major political camps have publicly ruled out including Arab-led parties in government, yet analysts suggest pragmatism may override stated positions. Ra’am previously made history in 2021 by becoming the first Arab party to join an Israeli government, working with a coalition that temporarily removed Netanyahu from power. The Joint List has indicated it could provide critical support through confidence votes without formally joining a government, potentially demanding concessions on issues including Palestinian statehood and organized crime affecting Palestinian communities.
The campaign has been marked by aggressive rhetoric, with Netanyahu’s Likud portraying Arab parties as potential kingmakers for opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot, while simultaneously suggesting willingness to negotiate with them if necessary to maintain power. Right-wing parties attempted to bar both Arab-led blocs from competing, but the Supreme Court overturned those disqualifications on October 2. Ra’am has undergone significant transformation since its 1996 founding, separating its political operations from religious oversight and fielding Jewish candidates among its leadership.
The political landscape has shifted rightward since the October 7, 2023 attack and subsequent war in Gaza, with Arab parties facing intensified accusations of disloyalty. Some analysts characterize the situation as demonstrating how either major coalition may ultimately require Arab support despite rhetorical opposition, creating potential credibility challenges for whichever side makes such arrangements after campaigning against them.
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