Israel is preparing for national elections on 27 October with polling indicating a significant rightward shift in the electorate, particularly among younger voters. National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who leads the Jewish Strength party, is predicted to win nine Knesset seats according to recent polls—potentially more than the Democrats, the successor party to the historically influential Labor party. This represents a notable development considering that four decades earlier, an extremist rabbi affiliated with similar ideological positions was effectively barred from political participation through legislative action and institutional resistance.
Demographic and generational factors are contributing to this political realignment. More than 500,000 Israelis have reached voting age since the previous election in 2022, with three-quarters of first-time Jewish voters identifying as right or centre-right. This generation came of age following the collapse of the Oslo peace process and were teenagers during the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023. Political analysts attribute the generational divide to prolonged exposure to rightwing political messaging, with younger voters socialized into an ultra-nationalist political environment that emphasizes security concerns and military approaches while downplaying democratic values and peace-oriented solutions.
The rightward shift extends across multiple political formations. Potential prime ministerial candidates include Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who formulated controversial military doctrine; Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister and settler advocate; and Avigdor Lieberman, who proposes dismantling Palestinian Authority structures. A survey of Jewish-led parties found that none support an independent Palestinian state, with only the Democrats opposing settlement expansion in occupied territories. Even the Democrats, positioned as the remaining center-left option, operate within a compressed political spectrum where their centrist platform faces attacks from rightwing elements.
Pollsters predict Netanyahu’s current governing coalition will fall below the 61-seat threshold required to form a government, potentially opening a path for opposition parties. However, most Jewish-led parties have ruled out coalitions with Arab parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, despite such alliances being mathematically necessary for government formation. The political debate has largely shifted away from peace negotiations and Palestinian self-determination, with most parties emphasizing security, military strength, and territorial considerations instead.
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