
Approximately 150,000 borrowers holding adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to experience their first interest rate adjustment this year, according to data from ICE Mortgage Technology. An additional 186,000 borrowers will face their initial adjustment in 2027, and 155,000 in 2028. Of this year’s total, roughly 64,000 adjustments are set to occur between August and December.
Because interest rates have increased since many of these homeowners originally took out their loans, their monthly payments could rise substantially. Some borrowers may see increases exceeding $1,000 per month, though a smaller percentage could experience rate reductions. For example, borrowers with seven-year ARMs originated in 2019 and facing resets later this year have a median initial rate of 3% on an average unpaid balance of $548,000. Based on current rate conditions and loan caps, these borrowers face a median adjusted rate of approximately 6.06%, resulting in a median payment increase of $1,080.
Adjustable-rate mortgages represent approximately 5.6% of the roughly 55.4 million active mortgages in the United States. Of the 3.1 million outstanding ARMs currently in the market—the highest volume in 5.5 years—approximately 2.05 million remain in their initial fixed-rate period, while 1.05 million have already entered their adjustable phase. ARM applications have increased from 5.9% of total applications in October 2024 to 10.3% in early October.
Borrowers facing rate resets have several options to consider. They may refinance into a fixed-rate mortgage for payment certainty, though this involves closing costs typically ranging from 2% to 5% of the loan amount. Alternatively, homeowners can maintain their existing ARM if they have sufficient financial capacity to absorb potential payment increases. Lenders are required to provide notices between 210 and 240 days before adjusted rates take effect, with a final notice arriving 60 to 120 days prior showing the actual new rate. Homeowners experiencing financial difficulty can seek guidance from HUD-approved housing counselors regarding loan modifications or alternative repayment arrangements.
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