Researchers have released an analysis examining the economic consequences of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies, projecting significant impacts on retirement security and the broader economy. According to the report commissioned by America’s Voice and conducted by Economic Insights and Research Consulting, the administration’s crackdown on immigration could reduce average annual Social Security benefits by $2,152 per recipient beginning in 2034 if current policies persist. The analysis attributes this outcome to lost payroll tax contributions from unauthorized immigrants who support the Social Security system without accessing its benefits.
The report documents widespread economic disruptions across multiple sectors following the departure of approximately 1.2 million foreign-born workers over the past two years. In agriculture, where 42 percent of crop workers are undocumented and 68 percent are foreign-born, farmers report significant workforce losses leading to crop spoilage. Food products reliant on immigrant labor have experienced sharper price increases than the broader grocery category, with examples including fresh whole milk up 5.7 percent, canned vegetables up 6.3 percent, and apples up 7.2 percent over a 19-month period following the administration’s return to office in January 2025.
Construction has faced comparable challenges, with states more dependent on immigrant labor experiencing single-family home cost increases of 10.9 percent in 2026 compared to the first eight months of 2024. Housing permit issuance for single-family homes has declined 10.6 percent nationwide since January 2025. The report indicates that native-born workers have lost employment opportunities in affected regions, as project cancellations eliminate demand for complementary skilled trades like electrical and plumbing work.
Labor shortages have extended to healthcare, including home health care and nursing facilities, as well as lawn care, landscaping, and groundskeeping sectors. By September 2025, the analysis estimates that native-born workers had lost between 51,000 and 297,000 jobs due to immigration policy changes. The overall labor force contracted by an estimated 919,000 people during the initial 18 months of the second Trump administration, while job growth slowed to roughly one-third of pre-administration rates.
Social Security trustees, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling, have indicated that lower-than-expected immigration poses financial threats to the retirement system. Report authors told the Guardian that if current immigration policies continue as projected, the economy could face additional pressures including higher prices, increased job losses, slower growth, and a worsening affordability crisis.
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