An official energy assessment has warned that Great Britain faces potential gas supply shortages in the 2030s, prompting government consideration of direct financial intervention to support the country’s aging gas infrastructure.
The warning emerged from a government consultation that examined various supply scenarios. A “high stress scenario” identified in the assessment suggests that homes and businesses could experience gas shortages within the next decade. Most consultation respondents agreed that the gas industry would be unlikely to independently prepare for rare but severe supply disruptions. Three-quarters of respondents supported concerns previously raised by the National Energy System Operator regarding emerging risks to gas supply security, particularly the possibility that gas could become unavailable during extended cold weather periods by 2030.
Energy Minister Michael Shanks characterized any potential government intervention or investment in the gas market as “unprecedented” and indicated that such decisions would not be made hastily. Possible support measures under consideration include financial assistance for gas storage facility owners and pipeline operators to make infrastructure upgrades and maintenance economically viable over coming decades. Despite these concerns about gas supply, Shanks reiterated the government’s commitment to reducing fossil fuel dependence and expanding clean energy sources, while acknowledging that the energy transition will require time.
The gas supply security discussion comes as the government prepares to make decisions on two disputed North Sea oil and gas field proposals at Rosebank and Jackdaw. The Prime Minister has indicated a “pragmatic” approach to North Sea drilling, noting that domestic resources should not be disregarded during periods of economic difficulty. Britain currently relies on gas for more than a third of its energy consumption, with North Sea fields providing nearly half of domestic gas usage over the past five years, while Norwegian supplies account for just over a third and imports from the US and Middle East comprise approximately a fifth of supply.
Declining North Sea production represents a primary concern, with output expected to fall roughly 5% annually. Although the government projects gas consumption to decrease by over three-quarters by 2050 according to Climate Change Committee guidance, domestic production is anticipated to decline faster, creating a potential mismatch that could compromise supply security.
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