Australia’s jobless rate climbed to 4.7% in September, marking its highest level in nearly five years, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had anticipated employment gains of around 20,000 positions. Instead, the total number of employed Australians declined by 39,300 during the month, signaling unexpected weakness in the labor market.
The employment decline was driven primarily by a substantial drop in part-time work, which fell by 73,700 positions. Full-time employment did increase by 34,400 roles, but this was insufficient to offset the part-time losses. The jobless rate would have remained at 4.6% had the statistics bureau not revised upward August’s figure to 4.7%. At the start of the year, the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%.
The weaker-than-expected jobs report prompted financial markets to significantly reduce expectations for a Reserve Bank rate hike scheduled for early November. Market pricing showed the probability of an increase dropping to below 20%, down from approximately 35% earlier in the day, according to Bloomberg data. However, economists remained divided on whether the latest figures would be sufficient to prevent further tightening.
Government and opposition figures offered contrasting interpretations of the data. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese noted that Australia’s unemployment remained historically low compared to the past five decades. Opposition shadow treasurer Tim Wilson criticized the government’s economic management, citing higher unemployment alongside elevated taxes, spending, inflation, and interest rates. Underemployment, which measures people in jobs seeking additional work, also increased to 6.3% from 6.2% in the prior month.
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