The UN Environment Programme released its annual assessment of the global emissions gap, concluding that temporary breach of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C warming threshold is now unavoidable following prolonged inadequate climate measures. The agency’s report, titled “The point of return,” indicates that the focus must shift toward limiting how far temperatures exceed the target and establishing a pathway for temperatures to return to 1.5C by the end of the century.
Under the most optimistic emissions reduction scenario, global warming would peak at approximately 1.7-1.8C mid-century before declining, remaining aligned with Paris Agreement objectives. Achieving this trajectory would require global emissions reductions of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, alongside significant expansion of atmospheric carbon dioxide removal technologies. Current national climate commitments fall substantially short of these targets, with pledges projected to deliver only 5-8% emissions reductions by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035 relative to 2025 levels.
Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 reached 58.4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, representing a marginal 0.16 billion tonne decrease from 2024 levels. The report notes considerable uncertainty around these provisional figures and cautions against drawing firm conclusions about 2025 emissions direction. Long-term trends show emissions growth rates have moderated, declining from 1.7% annually during 1990-2015 to 0.8% yearly since 2016. Fossil fuel emissions increased slightly year-over-year, while reduced land-use emissions partially offset these gains, partly reflecting reduced wildfire activity across Africa, South America and southeast Asia.
Among major emitters, only the United States recorded significant emissions growth in 2025, driven by increased electricity demand and expanded coal power utilization. Progress on decarbonization across most sectors remains limited, though notable advances emerged in renewable electricity expansion and electric vehicle adoption. However, emissions from transportation continued rising due to growing international aviation and shipping demand. As of early September 2026, 124 nations representing 75% of global emissions had submitted updated climate pledges for 2035, substantially exceeding the prior year’s submission rate.
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