The UN Environment Programme has released its annual assessment of the global emissions gap, warning that a temporary breach of the 1.5C global-warming limit is now “imminent and unavoidable” due to decades of insufficient climate action. The report, titled “The point of return,” states that the focus must shift toward minimizing the extent of temperature overshoot and establishing a pathway to return to 1.5C by the end of the century.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, global warming would peak at approximately 1.7-1.8C in the middle of the century before declining, according to the report. This outcome, which remains compatible with the Paris Agreement’s long-term objectives, would require global emissions reductions of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, alongside expanded efforts to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Current national climate pledges, if fully implemented, would only reduce emissions by 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035 relative to 2025 levels—substantially below what is needed.
Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 totaled 58.4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, representing a marginal decrease from 2024 levels. Emissions from fossil fuels increased slightly, while methane emissions remained steady. A reduction in emissions from land-use changes, partly driven by declining wildfire emissions, partially offset increases in other sectors. Among major emitting nations, the United States saw notable growth in 2025 due to increased electricity demand and coal power usage, while emissions in China, the EU, India, Russia, and Indonesia remained relatively flat.
Progress toward decarbonization has been uneven across sectors, with the most significant decreases occurring in power generation and transport due to expanded solar capacity and electric vehicle adoption. However, transport emissions continue rising due to increased international aviation and shipping demand. The report identifies continued opportunities for accelerated climate action, noting that 124 countries representing 75% of global emissions have now submitted updated climate pledges for 2035, providing a strengthened foundation for assessing collective progress toward Paris Agreement targets.
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