The UN Environment Programme released its annual assessment of the global emissions gap this year, stating that a temporary breach of the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold established by the Paris Agreement is now unavoidable following sustained inadequate climate efforts. The organization characterizes this development as “sobering” and notes that the opportunity to avoid exceeding this limit without a temporary overshoot has been lost.
According to the report, even under the most optimistic scenario, global temperatures would peak at approximately 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius midcentury before declining back toward the 1.5C target by the end of the century. Achieving this outcome would require emissions reductions of 18 percent by 2030 and 45 percent by 2035. The report contrasts this with current national climate commitments, which if fully implemented would only achieve emissions reductions of 5 to 8 percent by 2030 and 11 to 15 percent by 2035 relative to 2025 levels.
Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 reached 58.4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, representing a slight decrease compared to 2024 levels, though the data carries substantial uncertainty. Emissions from fossil fuels increased marginally year-over-year, while methane emissions remained stable. Reductions in land-use related emissions, partly driven by declining wildfire activity in specific regions, offset some of the increases from other sources. Among major emitting nations, the United States recorded a notable emissions increase in 2025, attributed to higher electricity demand and expanded coal power generation, while China, the EU, India, Russia and Indonesia saw relatively flat emissions trends.
Progress toward decarbonization across most economic sectors remains limited, though the power and transport sectors have shown more substantial improvements driven by renewable energy expansion and electric vehicle adoption. The report identifies substantial opportunities for accelerated climate action, emphasizing that countries retain the capacity to constrain peak warming levels and maintain alignment with Paris Agreement objectives.
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