Cox Automotive has revised downward its forecast for used vehicle price growth this year, now predicting only a 0.2% increase rather than the previously anticipated 2% gain. The adjustment follows a 1.95% decline in the company’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index during the third quarter, with September marking the first monthly decline compared to the prior year since March 2025.
The softer pricing environment reflects mounting economic headwinds affecting consumer purchasing power. Rising interest rates, declining consumer sentiment, and elevated fuel costs are pressuring the used vehicle market, though gains in financial assets are providing some offset to these negative factors. Wholesale prices fell 1.2% year-over-year in September and 1.3% from the previous month, with depreciation accelerating throughout the quarter.
Market dynamics are shifting as vehicle preferences change in response to fuel prices. Electric vehicle sales and off-lease inventory volumes increased during the period, with EVs and smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles experiencing value gains. Conversely, large trucks and sport-utility vehicles struggled in the market. The national average gasoline price reached $4.33 per gallon in September, substantially higher than the previous year’s comparable period.
Retail demand for used vehicles remains relatively stable despite the pricing pressures, though analysts suggest dealers may be approaching the ceiling on what consumers will pay. The average listed price for a used vehicle stood at $27,239 as of August, substantially below the more than $50,000 average for new vehicles. The pricing differential continues to drive consumer preference toward the used market, where the majority of American buyers conduct their vehicle purchases.
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