Cox Automotive lowered its pricing forecast for used vehicles, projecting a 0.2% increase for the year instead of the previously anticipated 2% gain. The revision reflects broader economic pressures stemming from elevated fuel costs and inflationary conditions affecting consumer finances.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a key benchmark tracking wholesale auction prices, declined 1.95% between July and September. September marked a particularly significant moment, recording the first monthly decline compared to the prior year since March 2025. The nonadjusted wholesale prices fell 1.2% year-over-year in September and 1.3% from August as vehicle depreciation accelerated throughout the quarter.
Market dynamics are shifting dramatically across different vehicle categories. Electric vehicles and smaller, fuel-efficient models gained value during the period, while large trucks and sport utility vehicles experienced significant declines. This trend reflects consumer response to fuel prices, which reached $4.33 per gallon nationally in September, marking a 50-cent increase above the previous September record of $3.83. Cox Automotive’s chief economist attributed the slowdown to rising interest rates, declining consumer sentiment, and elevated diesel prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
Retail demand for used vehicles remains relatively stable, though pricing changes suggest dealers may have reached a plateau in what consumers will pay. The average listed used vehicle price stood at $27,239 in August, substantially lower than the average new vehicle price exceeding $50,000. As wholesale costs continue to influence retail pricing, the market faces headwinds entering the final quarter of the year, with economic indicators pointing toward sustained consumer caution.
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