Historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz has advanced an argument popular among energy-transition skeptics: energy sources accumulate rather than replace one another. He points to global primary-energy charts showing fossil fuel use remaining near record levels despite substantial clean-energy investment. However, this analysis relies on flawed measurement approaches and incorrect scale assumptions, according to energy analysts examining the claim.
The core problem involves how transitions are measured and aggregated. Technologies compete in specific services and markets rather than in a single global energy category. Replacement happens sequentially: first in new sales, then in installed equipment, fuel demand, and finally in global aggregate figures. Whale oil, town gas, canal horses and other historical energy systems did not merely lose market share but disappeared from their original markets when superior alternatives emerged. Geographic and demographic variations mask substitution when combined into global totals. Coal generation can decline in Europe and North America while rising in Asia, making the global number appear flat while individual electricity markets experience rapid change. In the European Union, wind and solar produced 30.1% of electricity in 2025 compared with 29% from all fossil sources combined, representing substantial crossover rather than addition.
Transitions are underestimated because sales decline before fleet replacement and fleet replacement precedes fuel demand reduction. Global combustion-engine car sales peaked in 2017 and fell nearly one-third by 2024, while electric vehicle sales exceeded 17 million. Despite this, most vehicles on roads still burn fossil fuels because car fleets turn over slowly. The same pattern occurred with horses, which peaked in 1920 more than 30 years after practical automobiles appeared. Electric vehicles representing roughly 4% of the global fleet by late 2025 were already displacing slightly more than 2 million barrels of oil daily, with projections of 5 to 9 million barrels displaced by 2035.
Primary-energy comparisons also mislead because different energy sources deliver services with varying efficiency. Internal-combustion engines waste most fuel energy as heat, while electric motors convert larger shares into motion. Heat pumps deliver multiple units of heat per unit of electricity by moving ambient heat. Electrification therefore reduces primary-energy consumption while maintaining service levels. The global economy grew roughly 50% over 15 years while emissions increased only 9%, indicating economic growth and fossil-energy growth are separating.
Fossozs’s core concern remains valid: rising clean-energy shares do not guarantee fossil fuels decline quickly enough for climate objectives. Electricity decarbonizes more easily than aviation, cement, steel, shipping and agriculture. The transition can be real while remaining too slow for climate goals, making the distinction between fictional and real transitions critical for policy decisions.
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