A United Nations-coordinated assessment found that approximately 96% of the planet’s shallow-water coral reefs face significant risk of ecosystem collapse before 2075 when climate impacts are considered. Currently, about 24% of reefs across more than 80 countries are classified as critically endangered, but this figure rises substantially when projections for global heating are factored in. The analysis examined 127 coral reef regions worldwide and was led by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.
Coral reefs support approximately one-quarter of all known marine species and provide food security, coastal protection, and tourism revenue to hundreds of millions of people. Scientists cited multiple existing pressures on these ecosystems, including overfishing, pollution, coastal development, and rising temperatures, which have caused measurable declines over the past 50 years. The assessment did not fully account for the fourth global mass bleaching event that occurred from early 2023 to mid-2025, which was the most widespread on record.
The evaluation assumed greenhouse gas emissions would follow a middle-of-the-road trajectory, resulting in approximately 2.7°C of global warming by century’s end compared to pre-Industrial Revolution temperatures. A separate assessment noted that current climate policies and targets adopted globally are projected to cause about 2.6°C of warming. In Australia, all 17 reef regions were found to be critically endangered when climate impacts were included in projections, despite only four currently meeting that classification.
Researchers emphasized that while the findings are dire, reef survival remains possible with rapid reductions in fossil fuel use and strong local conservation efforts. Scientists described the results as an urgent warning rather than an irreversible outcome, calling for decisive climate action, stronger protection measures, ecosystem restoration, and investment in resilient coastal communities.
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