South Africa is holding local elections on Wednesday amid substantial public dissatisfaction with service delivery and government performance. The African National Congress, which has governed the country since the end of apartheid, is projected to receive less than a third of the vote, representing a considerable decline from its 45.6% support in 2021’s municipal elections and 40.2% in the previous year’s national elections.
Despite polling challenges, the ANC is still expected to emerge as the largest party, though vote fragmentation may result in a mixed outcome across municipalities. The party could lead several city coalition governments while losing control of others. Analysts attribute poor service delivery across South Africa’s 257 municipalities partly to the instability of coalition administrations and the rapid turnover of leadership. Johannesburg, a metropolitan area of 4.8 million residents, has experienced leadership changes with particular frequency, cycling through 10 mayors in a decade. Other major cities have similarly faced administrative upheaval, with Ekurhuleni having three mayors since 2021 and Tshwane rotating mayoral authority between parties four times since 2020. These cities have grappled with critical infrastructure failures, including water contamination incidents that led to gastrointestinal illness affecting over 800 people in one area during October.
In Gauteng province, South Africa’s economic and population center, the centre-right Democratic Alliance is leading polls across major metropolitan areas, though remaining below 40% support. Various smaller parties are also positioning themselves competitively, with the uMkhonto we Sizwe party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, polling above 40% in the eThekwini metropolitan area. Questions about potential coalition arrangements persist, particularly regarding whether the ANC might cooperate with the Democratic Alliance in major cities, mirroring a national-level partnership.
Results from Wednesday’s election will be announced within a week, with parties given two additional weeks to form councils and elect mayors.
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