The Democratic Party secured control of both chambers of Congress in midterm elections held on Tuesday, with Republican officials acknowledging that unpopular foreign policies significantly contributed to their losses. Vice President JD Vance attributed the Republican defeat to the war with Iran, which has fueled inflation and generated substantial military expenditures, alongside public disapproval of US-backed Israeli military operations. Polling data indicated that approximately 60 percent of voters surveyed opposed military action against Iran, while concerns about the cost of living emerged as the dominant issue influencing electoral decisions across the electorate.
Arabic-descent candidates representing Democratic positions on Israel performed unexpectedly well despite substantial opposition spending. In Michigan, newly elected Senator Abdul El-Sayed won his race while calling for an end to military assistance to Israel, even as pro-Israel groups spent significant resources to defeat him. His victory in a state won by Trump in 2024 established a precedent for candidates challenging the established consensus on US-Israel military support while maintaining electoral viability. El-Sayed’s win came despite vigorous campaign efforts by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and affiliated organizations.
Pro-Israel advocacy groups experienced diminished returns on their electoral investments in the midterm cycle. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s primary super PAC, United Democracy Project, expended $84.1 million across various races, with $55.3 million directed toward contests where their preferred candidates ultimately lost—a substantially worse performance compared to previous election cycles. The Michigan senate race represented the lobby’s most costly defeat, with approximately $31.47 million directed toward efforts to prevent El-Sayed’s election across both primary and general election phases.
Democratic control of Congress is likely to produce closer scrutiny of Israeli military operations and potential restrictions on weapons transfers. Lawmakers may pursue investigations into how the Biden and Trump administrations managed knowledge of alleged international law violations involving US-supplied weapons. Congressional votes on weapons sales restrictions have shown growing support, with increasing numbers of senators backing measures limiting military equipment transfers in recent years, suggesting that a Democratic majority could facilitate restrictions that previously faced insufficient support.
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