Crude oil exports from the strait of Hormuz have largely rebounded to pre-war levels following the outbreak of the Iran war on 28 February, according to data from trade intelligence firm Kpler. The recovery reflects adaptations by regional oil producers and the shipping industry to maintain fuel supplies despite geopolitical disruption. At least 16.5m barrels per day departed the region in September, matching pre-war averages excluding Iranian exports and marking a significant increase from the 10.5m bpd average recorded during the initial weeks of conflict.
Producers have implemented multiple workarounds to circumvent constraints in the strategic waterway. Approximately 40% of regional crude now bypasses the strait entirely through Saudi and Emirati pipeline infrastructure, compared with 17% before the war. Saudi Arabia restarted operations on its east-west pipeline in late September following drone damage, enabling exports to resume through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Additionally, most crude transiting the strait travels via shuttle tankers with disabled satellite transponders, with cargo transferred to different vessels in open water near Oman or the United Arab Emirates. This practice has become widespread, with more than 70% of August traffic involving mid-sea transfers, compared with virtually none prior to the conflict.
Despite crude recovery, refined product supplies face severe constraints that are driving price increases globally. Flows of diesel and other refined products remain below 20% of pre-war levels, with only 677,000 barrels per day recorded as of Monday compared with 3.6m before the conflict. This shortage has prompted dramatic price increases, with UK diesel hitting an all-time high of 199.18p per litre on Monday. Analysts identified diesel as carrying the sharpest pricing risk given persistent supply limitations.
Shipping industry observers cautioned that operational adaptations should not be conflated with genuine security improvements. While market participants have absorbed increased complexity and costs, underlying threats persist. Three Liberian-flagged tankers were struck by projectiles while transiting the strait on Tuesday, underscoring ongoing dangers to vessels and crew. Crude prices moved higher on Thursday, reaching above $100 per barrel for Brent as traders weighed export recovery against uncertainty surrounding long-term conflict resolution and waterway reopening. Additional pressure emerged from reports that China had suspended oil product exports to regions beyond Hong Kong and Macau, signaling potential domestic supply concerns.
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