An international team of climate scientists has identified multiple factors behind Indonesia’s severe wildfire season, which consumed almost 3 million hectares of land during the August to October peak period. The analysis, conducted by World Weather Attribution researchers, examined conditions across Java, Kalimantan, and Sumatra to quantify the contribution of different elements to the blazes.
The investigation found that global warming, primarily from fossil fuel combustion, raised temperatures by 1.6 degrees Celsius during the three-month period, increasing drying of vegetation and land surfaces. El Niño conditions, described as being on track to set records, contributed an additional 0.3 degrees of warming while reducing rainfall by approximately 50 percent. The combination of factors made hot and dry conditions three times more likely due to climate change and five times more likely due to El Niño effects.
Long-term landscape changes also played a significant role in creating vulnerable conditions. Extensive logging, agricultural expansion, and peatland drainage over the preceding 30 years transformed Indonesian landscapes, leaving them susceptible to ignition. The delayed onset of the rainy season by 20 to 30 days, attributed to El Niño, allowed fires to continue burning longer than typical.
The fires have generated substantial impacts across the region and beyond. Confirmed burned area reached 2.88 million hectares, potentially exceeding the 2015 record of 2.6 million hectares. Health officials reported at least 400,000 respiratory infections linked to wildfire smoke, including 180,000 cases among children. The toxic haze extended beyond Indonesia’s borders, affecting air quality in Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Scientists warn that without rapid transition away from fossil fuels and strengthened land-management measures, future El Niño years will bring increasingly severe fire seasons.
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