Local authorities across England are forecasting record deficits related to special educational needs and disability support, with combined debts predicted to reach £10bn within the next 18 months. This projection comes despite the government recently clearing more than £5bn in historic council Send debts. The County Councils Network, which released these forecasts on Tuesday, attributes the escalating costs to surging demand for education, health and care plans that outline required support for children and young people with conditions including autism, ADHD, speech difficulties and learning disabilities.
The rapid increase in applications is thought to be partly driven by parents and schools seeking to secure formal support before the government implements planned changes to Send provision. The government-commissioned Fonagy report, released last week, acknowledged that increases in mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions are genuine and causing distress, but warned that resulting service demands would be unsustainable without new management approaches. At the most recent count in January, 718,000 young people held education, health and care plans, representing a 12.5% increase over the previous 12 months—the largest year-on-year growth since the plans were introduced in 2014.
Council leaders are expressing alarm about the financial trajectory, warning of potential bankruptcy when accumulated Send debts return to local authority balance sheets in April 2028 under current Treasury arrangements. Several authorities are reporting individual deficits exceeding £100m, with Hampshire county council forecasting a £200m shortfall this year alone. The CCN has called on government ministers to guarantee coverage of 90% of future Send debts, arguing that anything less would constitute a financial catastrophe for local authorities.
Government officials stated that they inherited a strained Send system and recognize that both deficits and applications will continue rising before reforms take full effect. Ministers have committed to investing billions in early specialist access and tailored local reform plans. However, uncertainty remains regarding the extent of future debt support, with officials previously indicating it would be “appropriate and proportionate” but “not unlimited.” The government spokesperson indicated details on deficit support would be provided before March 2028.
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