Local authorities across England are expressing serious concerns about mounting deficits related to special educational needs and disability support, with forecasts indicating debts could accumulate to £10bn over the next 18 months. The government recently cleared more than £5bn in historic council Send debts, but rapid growth in demand for education, health and care plans has prompted predictions that councils will regain that debt level by April and double it by 2028.
The surge in applications for EHCPs, which provide mandated support for conditions including speech and learning difficulties, autism, and ADHD, is partly attributed to parents and schools attempting to secure assistance before upcoming government changes to Send provision take effect. The County Councils Network, which released these forecasts, emphasized that the overspending does not result from reckless council spending but rather from obligations to meet rapidly growing statutory demand without proportional funding increases. Several large councils are already predicting substantial individual deficits, with Hampshire forecasting a £200m shortfall for the current year.
The number of young people holding EHCPs reached 718,000 in January, marking a 12.5% increase over the preceding 12 months—the largest annual rise since the plans were introduced in 2014. A government-commissioned report found that the increase in neurodevelopmental and mental health conditions is genuine but that resulting service demands would prove unsustainable without new management approaches across public services.
Councils face particular financial pressure as accumulated Send debts, currently kept off balance sheets through a special Treasury arrangement, are scheduled to return to books in April 2028 when the override expires. The County Councils Network has called on ministers to guarantee coverage of future Send debts at 90% to prevent what it characterizes as a “financial catastrophe” for local authorities. Government representatives stated they recognize deficits will continue rising before reforms are fully implemented and pledged to provide details on additional deficit support before March 2028.
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