Europe faces critical supply chain vulnerabilities for raw materials essential to the energy transition and defense sectors, with many resources currently sourced from geographically distant suppliers or processed by China. Ukraine and nations in the Western Balkans contain substantial deposits of lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, manganese and other strategic materials that could potentially address European shortages. However, integrating these regional resources into European supply chains requires more than simply opening new mines in neighboring countries.
The European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act established ambitious goals to extract 10% of critical material consumption within the EU by 2030, process 40%, and obtain 25% through recycling. Current progress remains limited, with the European Court of Auditors reporting weak results earlier this year. The fundamental challenge extends beyond sourcing raw ore. China controls approximately 81% of global critical mineral processing capacity, enabling it to dominate supply chains regardless of where extraction occurs. Proximity to regional deposits offers strategic advantages only if coupled with integrated production infrastructure spanning exploration, extraction, processing, manufacturing and recycling.
Ukraine contains deposits representing 22 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU, including graphite, titanium, manganese and lithium. However, significant constraints exist. Much geological data remains outdated, approximately 40% of metal resources lie in Russian-occupied territory, and war-related infrastructure damage complicates development. Ukrainian resources represent a long-term reconstruction opportunity rather than an immediate supply solution, requiring investment in modern geological mapping, transparent licensing frameworks, processing capacity and transportation infrastructure.
Serbia’s Jadar lithium deposit demonstrates the political dimension of raw material policy. The project could produce sufficient battery-grade lithium carbonate annually for roughly one million electric vehicles, yet faces substantial public opposition over environmental and water concerns. Success depends not merely on technical mining capabilities but on public legitimacy, institutional transparency and equitable distribution of economic benefits. Without public confidence in regulatory enforcement and local benefit-sharing, projects risk delays, litigation and cancellation.
Effective European raw material strategy requires linking resource extraction to industrial development and enlargement objectives. Candidate countries should receive EU-equivalent environmental standards, transparent ownership structures, independent monitoring and meaningful downstream processing rather than serving as ore exporters. This approach transforms raw material policy from extractive economics into sustainable industrial integration.
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