A research paper published in Science Advances examines the effectiveness of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, which has invested over $6 billion in purchasing more than 53,000 properties in disaster-prone areas since 1988. The program aims to reduce repetitive federal disaster assistance and insurance claims by encouraging homeowners to relocate to lower-risk locations.
The study by environmental economist Rachel Young at the University of Minnesota found that program participants were approximately 20 percentage points more likely to move within the first five years compared to similarly affected individuals who did not participate. This advantage persisted for at least 15 years, and participants tended to relocate to neighborhoods with higher incomes, education levels, and employment rates. From a fiscal perspective, the federal investment generally pays for itself through avoided future disaster costs and reduced insurance claims.
However, the research revealed substantial demographic disparities in program outcomes. Residents from higher-income neighborhoods demonstrated greater relocation success and moved to areas with greater economic opportunity, while households in majority-Black and low-income neighborhoods relocated less frequently and experienced smaller improvements. The average buyout payment in majority-Black areas was $40,583, compared to $93,977 in predominantly white census tracts. These discrepancies stem partly from the program’s use of pre-disaster market values, which tend to be lower in marginalized communities, leaving some residents unable to afford homes in safer areas.
Experts including sociologists and climate policy researchers acknowledged the study’s importance in documenting these inequities at the national level. They noted that the lengthy application process, often taking years, leaves disaster victims in precarious circumstances during the waiting period. Recommendations for improvement include reducing wait times, using replacement cost rather than market value, and expanding the program to reach millions more people living in at-risk homes. Researchers emphasized that the government should conduct its own assessments of program outcomes rather than relying primarily on academic research to understand the policy’s implications.
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