The intensifying 2026-27 El Niño weather pattern is expected to significantly influence coal usage worldwide, according to projections from the World Meteorological Organization and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The phenomenon, characterized by sea surface temperatures reaching at least 2 degrees Celsius above long-term averages, is forecast to be one of the most destructive climate events in 50 years and may persist through February 2027. Only three Super El Niños have been recorded since 1950, with the previous occurrence happening in 2015-16.
The climate pattern is already affecting coal consumption differently across regions. India, the world’s second-largest coal consumer, is experiencing increased coal usage as the El Niño reduces hydropower and wind generation while simultaneously boosting electricity demand from air conditioning and cooling needs. Research organizations have estimated that India could face a generation gap of nearly 18 terawatt-hours, with coal-fired power generation expected to bridge most of this shortfall and release approximately 17 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide. Data from October confirmed these projections, showing India’s coal-fired generation surging at its fastest annual pace in three years.
Conversely, other major coal-consuming nations are expected to experience reduced coal demand. In China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, El Niño typically brings warmer and wetter winters, enhancing hydropower generation and decreasing the need for thermal coal power. As the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia faces potential supply disruptions due to drought conditions that restrict coal barge transport capacities on inland rivers.
The Super El Niño is also expected to disrupt renewable energy generation across multiple regions. Solar power production may decline in California and parts of China, while hydropower capacity could drop significantly in the US Pacific Northwest and southern Africa. Previous strong El Niño events have caused dramatic reductions in hydropower, with water levels in some regions declining by as much as 70 percent. These renewable energy deficits may drive increased demand for fossil fuels in regions where solar and hydropower are dominant energy sources, potentially offsetting climate mitigation efforts.
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