Brazil held a consequential presidential runoff election on 25 October after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva lost the initial round to far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. In a historic reversal, Lula secured victory in the second round, marking the first time since democracy’s restoration that a first-round loser had bounced back to win.
Elderly voters played a notable role in the outcome. More than 1 million people aged 70 and older who had not participated in the first round cast ballots in the runoff. Of approximately 3 million additional voters who turned out for the second round after skipping the first, roughly 1.4 million were over 70 years old. Pre-election polling indicated that older voters favored Lula. The imagery of centenarians and nonagenarians being transported to polling places in wheelchairs, stretchers, and with assistance from relatives generated widespread attention, with Lula himself describing these scenes as powerful and humanizing moments during the campaign.
Experts attribute Lula’s 10.3 million vote swing between rounds to multiple factors beyond elderly turnout. These include a welfare benefits increase announced before the vote, a major digital mobilization effort through WhatsApp that grew to nearly 11 million members, and widespread student-led street protests. Political analyst José Roberto de Toledo noted that while higher elderly turnout was measurable and real, many voters who switched to Lula were motivated primarily by fear of the unknown under Bolsonaro rather than age-related considerations. Voters who had previously supported other right-wing candidates opted for the familiar and predictable Lula over Bolsonaro in the final choice.
Bolsonaro’s post-first-round behavior reportedly damaged his chances. His assertion that he would “re-democratise” Brazil—a country already considered democratic—raised concerns about authoritarian intentions. These concerns were amplified by the fact that Jair Bolsonaro, the candidate’s father and former president, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for allegedly plotting to seize power after his 2022 election loss. Former minister Simone Tebet characterized the result as a cross-generational achievement, crediting young people’s street activism alongside older voters’ participation in preserving democratic institutions.
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