The Associated Press called five U.S. House races in North Carolina for Democrats on Thursday, four of which represent flips from Republican control. These victories occurred in districts that were explicitly drawn following a 2023 redistricting process intended to provide a significant advantage to Republican candidates. As of Thursday, the AP had called nine of the state’s 14 House seats for Democrats and none for Republicans, marking a dramatic shift from the delegation’s composition entering the week with 10 Republicans and four Democrats.
The competitive results in districts designed to favor Republicans have prompted analysis within GOP circles regarding the factors that contributed to the party’s losses. U.S. Rep. Brian Jack, a Georgia Republican, attributed part of the challenging environment to decisions made by Senate Republicans. In a letter to fellow House Republicans, Jack noted that when Senate Republicans withdrew support from North Carolina weeks prior to the election, it “created a cascade that likely swept away many of our colleagues from that state.”
Among the Democratic gains, incumbent Rep. Don Davis secured reelection in the 1st Congressional District with a margin exceeding his performance in the previous election cycle, despite that district having been redrawn by legislative Republicans the previous year with the goal of improving GOP prospects. In a separately affected race, Democrat Don Davis was leading Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout by more than 10,000 votes.
Two additional races remain in flux with potential recount implications. In the 3rd Congressional District, Republican Greg Murphy holds a narrow 233-vote lead over Democrat Raymond Smith in a district where Democrats did not field a candidate in the prior election. Similarly, in the 5th Congressional District, Democratic challenger Chuck Hubbard trails 11-term Republican incumbent Virginia Foxx by only 99 votes.
If current results hold through the outstanding races, North Carolina’s congressional delegation would undergo a complete reversal, shifting from 10 Republicans and four Democrats to 10 Democrats and four Republicans.
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